I originally had this grandiose idea for writing these predictions up, complete with something sarcastic about flinging mashed potatoes at those cardboard cut-out NHL standings tables you could get from boxes of Cherios around 1992, but since it's now after one period in the first games of the playoffs, I'm saying "fuck it" and cross-posting my commentary from Mirtle's blog and my game-number predictions from Battle of Ontario's prediction game. Onward and upward. Or something. Whatever, it's rushed, but here you go.

Update April 23: All series complete with final thoughts. Will try to get something up on the next round before tomorrow, but no promises.

Prince of Wales Conference Quarterfinals

(1) Montreal vs. (8) Boston: It should really be closer than the season series would indicate, but on the other hand, there's equal potential for this to be a prison shower scene. Very interested in how Boston responds to 11 straight losses to the Habs, as well as how the Habs' copious kids handle real hockey. My money's on the team with Ken Dryden III, as anointed by the Montreal media. Habs in 5.

	4	3	1	1	1	4	5		4
	1	2	2	0	5	5	0		3

Story of the Series: Let's be honest here: the Habs were largely outplayed through the middle five games, and even in the first period of Game 7. If not for the goaltending of Carey Price, this series doesn't even make Game 6, never mind Game 7. But Price did what he had to after a couple of pretty damned bad third periods in Games 5 and 6, while his teammates finally got their speed game going, and for the first time, looked like the squad that had its way with the Bruins eight times this regular season. The Bruins, though, were full value for their three wins and more, and coach Claude Julien deserves a lot of credit for leading another motley crew, this one without its top scorer for most of the season, into the playoffs and into Game 7 against a club that they had no business being competitive with, based on precedent.

(2) Pittsburgh vs. (7) Ottawa: Ottawa's been a joke for at least half the season. Pittsburgh is awesome with Crosby and awesome without him. Unless Marc-Andre Fleury is injured and Ty Conklin repeats his legendary '06 performance, this should be fairly short, especially with no Alfredsson, though the Sens have proven that they can still pull games out of their asses on occasion when they need to. Pens in 6.

	4	5	4	3		4
	0	3	1	1		0

Story of the Series: Hey, look, Ottawa sucked! I know, it's a shock! Anyway, I thought they might get a character win at some point, maybe at home, but the closest they came was a three-goal comeback in Game 2 that ultimately fell short, thanks in part to a retarded penalty by Martin "Veteran Leadership" Lapointe. The rest was pretty much what everyone expected. Enjoy the view from the bottom of the bus, Razor.

(3) Washington vs. (6) Philadelphia: Matt Fenwick's last-60 chart shows Washington in the top five of the NHL since Game 20. Philly, not so much. I think the Caps just have too much momentum right now, though I do wonder if they'll be able to maintain it beyond one series (see last year's Rangers). If nothing else, Ovechkin will continue to be a human highlight reel. Caps in 7.

	5	0	3	3	3	4	2		3
	4	2	6	4	2	2	3		4

Story of the Series: The Flyers did a wonderful job of checking Alexander Ovechkin for Games 2-5, while simultaneously exploiting the Caps' defensive weaknesses and an at-times surprisingly human Christobal Huet. Daniel Briere was the MVP of the series without question, scoring 11 points in the seven games, including six goals. While Ovechkin came alive in the last two games, doing everything he could to lead his team to victory, a 3-1 deficit is almost inevitably too great. Some have lamented that the NHL's dream matchup of Crosby vs. Ovechkin in Round 2 has been quashed by a lame overtime penalty, especially after Washington dominated the third period, when the refs put the whistles away, but give Martin Biron some credit here: he was fantastic when he had to be. Most people are calling this the best series of the first round, and while you'd probably get some debate here, there's no question it was the most talked-about of the eight.

(4) New Jersey vs. (5) New York Rangers: Rangers fans better hope their spells over certain teams (NJ and MTL spring to mind) haven't been irreparably broken by late-season losses to both teams. On the other hand, Marty has developed this habit of looking really tired in the playoffs the last year or two. At some point, you've gotta wonder if playing 75+ games per season every year is really worth it. The guy isn't 25 anymore. Rangers in 7.

	1	1	4	3	3		1
	4	2	3	5	5		4

Story of the Series: The Rangers continued to own the Devils, with only a flukey OT goal keeping this from being a sweep. It's now becoming a pattern that Martin Brodeur sucks in the playoffs, which leads me to wonder if Uncle Lou is gonna finally break down and get him a real backup. Oh, and Sean Avery is still a douchebag, in case you were wondering.

Clarence S. Campbell Conference Quarterfinals

(1) Detroit vs. (8) Nashville: While Detroit has an institutional history of choking against hot goalies in the playoffs the last few years, one has to expect that last year was a sign that they're done with that nonsense; one could argue that they were a phantom interference call from a Stanley Cup last year, though one would also be stretching it big-time. If Dan Ellis catches fire, though, it could get interesting. Somehow I doubt this is going to be a swift series, especially given the surprisingly even season series between the two teams, though ultimately, it'll probably go down much like it did in '04. Wings in 6.

	3	4	2	2	2	3		4
	1	2	5	3	1	0		2

Story of the Series: Nashville gave the Wings everything they could handle, and Game 5 was the ultimate heartbreaker, and might just have forced Dominik Hasek into retirement, but in the end, Detroit proved too deep and too talented for this particular band of underdogs. It's either galling or fitting, depending on your perspective, that the series winner turned out to be another flip-job by Nicklas "Norris" Lidstrom from the neutral zone that somehow eluded the otherwise-solid Dan Ellis, given that he basically destroyed Dan Cloutier's career with the same move six years ago. And how about that Chris Osgood? 0.39 GAA and 98.2% saves since deposing Hasek. He's not going to maintain those numbers, but he's going to be a serious threat as the playoffs progress.

(2) San Jose vs. (7) Calgary: I don't trust teams that back into the playoffs and lack depth, and conversely favour teams that come in hot and carry depth. Anything's possible (cliche alert!), but there's nothing special about this Flames team that suggests an upset is inbound. Sharks in 5.

	2	2	3	3	4	0	5		4
	3	0	4	2	3	2	3		3

Story of the Series: Okay, so I may have forgotten about the Flames being loaded with physical players and veterans, tailor-made for the playoffs, but I think the larger problem San Jose had early is that their stars weren't playing like stars: Thornton, Marleau, and Cheechoo were AWoL through three games, and it looked like Cory Sarich's devastating hit on Patrick Marleau in Game 3, moments after Marleau had been run from behind by Dion Phaneuf, would be a series-changing hit, especially since the Flames came back from 3-0 down in that game to win 4-3. The Sharks showed character of their own, though, in coming from behind in Game 4 and hanging on in Game 5, then again by recovering from 2-1 behind early in the 2nd period of Game 7 to bury the Flames, led by the singular contributions of...Jeremy Roenick? Wait, really? I mean, he's still playing? Anyway, the Sharks survive a genuine scare, and as with Montreal, will either be made stronger by it, or be exposed as the regular-season frauds they are. Stay tuned, I guess.

(3) Minnesota vs. (6) Colorado: And forget what I just said above, because while Colorado's been mediocre down the stretch, I just can't shake the feeling that a consistently healthy Floppa will win them one more series than they probably should win, otherwise. It'll be tight, either way. Avs in 7. Note: Since this was written the Wild lost Nick Schultz to an appendectomy. In the interest of fairness, however, the initial prediction shall stand.

	2	3	3	1	2	1		2
	3	2	2	5	3	2		4

Story of the Series: I think I may just ask Matt to comment on this, but it certainly looks as though, in the last couple of games, the Wild threw everything but the kitchen sink at Zombie Jose Theodore, but he just wouldn't crack -- 72 saves on 75 shots in his last two games (96.0%). Of course, the other major factor here is that Minny had two injured D-men and a missing Slovak superstar in Marian Gaborik, which really didn't help their cause. Jim Hughson of CBC made the comment last night about the clock being set back ten years for some of Colorado's old vets, and while I didn't see as much of this series as I'd have liked, from the looks of the highlights, he's right. Detroit or San Jose, whomever the Sharks meet (assuming it's either), should be scared.

(4) Anaheim vs. (5) Dallas: I wonder if the chemistry in the Stars' locker room wasn't seriously disrupted by the Brad Richards trade. Besides, after scoring five points in his first game, Richards has managed just six in eleven games since, and I'm just not seeing him covering the bet on the balance of the evidence here. Anaheim, while they lack the forward depth they had last year, have yet more defensive depth (when Marc-Andre Bergeron, a PP specialist who scored 15 goals as Chris Pronger's hanger-on-du-jour in Edmonton and hip-checking savant, is your #7-8 option, you're doing okay), and I think that's probably going to be more important going forward, at least in the West. Ducks in six.

	0	2	4	1	5	1		2
	4	5	2	3	2	4		4

Story of the Series: From everything I've seen from observers of all stripes, the Stars won by playing a game specifically calculated to counter ever possible strength the Ducks could muster. Smother the forecheck. Catch them on stupid penalties and bury them on the power-play. And so on. It was a spectacularly well-executed plan, and perhaps most amazingly of all, Dave Tippett actually got Mike Ribiero, he of the worst injury-fake in NHL history, to lay a proper bodycheck. I was shocked, too. The Sharks will be in for a doozy of a fight come Round 2.

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